Declining glaciers endanger sustainable development of the oases along the Aksu-Tarim River (Central Asia)

Tarim River basin is the largest endorheic river in China. Due to extremely arid climate water supply solely depends on originating from glacierised mountains with about 75% stemming transboundary Aksu River. The demand linked anthropogenic (specifically agriculture) and natural ecosystems, both competing for water. Ongoing change significantly impacts cryosphere. mass balance of glaciers was clearly negative since 1975. discharge headwaters has been increasing over last decades mainly due glacier contribution. average melt contribution total runoff 30–37% an estimated imbalance 8–16%. Modelling using future scenarios indicate a area loss at least 50% until 2100. will first increase concomitant shrinkage 2050, but likely decline thereafter. irrigated doubled region between early 1990s 2020, causing doubling demand. current surplus comparable glacial runoff. Hence, even if not grow further significant shortage can be expected declining However, expansion agriculture related industries, increase. Both improved projections planning efficient sustainable use are necessary socioeconomic development along preservation ecosystems.